[The economic application of in-depth analysis of artificial intelligence] The economist Robert Gordon believes that productivity growth in the next 25 years will continue the sluggish pace since 2004, while in the past two centuries the ship and the telegraph will The endless stream of great inventions is now difficult to reproduce.
In many parts of the world, the GDP growth rate of many economies is shrinking; many key indicators of economic efficiency are falling sharply; at the same time, the growth of the labor force in developed countries is basically stagnant. Faced with the prospect of a downturn, some commentators have referred to economic stagnation as the "new normal." This seems to imply that lack of innovation, superimposition of unfavorable demographic trends, and growing inequality of education and wealth, the economic slowdown seems to have become inevitable. So, is it true that people are worried that growth and prosperity are coming to an end?
Artificial Intelligence: A New Production Factor
From the data point of view, this is indeed the case. But what if we include the impact of new technologies on economic growth? Accenture found that by analyzing 12 advanced economies, artificial intelligence is expected to double its annual growth rate by 2035.
Traditionally, capital and labor are the “products of production†that drive economic growth (see Figure 1). When the total amount of capital or labor increases, or when they are used more effectively, the economy will grow. But now, the growth driven by innovation in the economic field and technological change has also been reflected in total factor productivity (TFP). Economists have always believed that new technologies promote growth by increasing total factor productivity. The technologies seen so far have played such a role. A series of major technological breakthroughs that took place in the 20th century—electricity, railways, and information technology—had significantly increased productivity but failed to create new labor.
Today, we are witnessing the rise of another type of transformative technology: artificial intelligence. If AI not only plays a role in driving total factor productivity, but it also becomes a completely new production factor. If artificial intelligence is viewed as a mixture of capital and labor, it can replicate labor practices on a larger scale and speed, and even perform tasks that exceed human capabilities. And there is no doubt that in some areas it has faster learning capabilities than humans — albeit with less depth. For example, a virtual assistant can audit 1,000 legal documents within a few days, eliminating the need for three people to take six months.
Similarly, artificial intelligence can also use some form of physical assets, such as robots and smart machines. Unlike conventional assets such as conventional machines and buildings, artificial intelligence can rely on its self-learning ability to achieve continuous improvement over time.
What happens when artificial intelligence becomes a new production factor, not just a productivity enhancement tool? For example, this will have a huge impact on the expected level of growth in the United States. As shown in Figure 2, when artificial intelligence becomes a new factor of production, it will have a transformative impact on growth. It can be seen from this that the role of supplementing and enhancing traditional production factors is precisely where the true potential of artificial intelligence lies. CONATIX CEO David Lehrer once said: "The progress of artificial intelligence is leading us to rethink basic economic relations and how to create value."
How much artificial intelligence will contribute in 2035
In order to understand the value of artificial intelligence as a new factor of production, Accenture teamed up with cutting-edge companies in economics to model its potential impact on 12 advanced economies - they account for more than half of world economic output. Through research, it has been found that artificial intelligence has the potential to double the annual growth rate of these countries' economies, significantly reversing the downward trend in recent years.
In terms of absolute value, artificial intelligence contributes most to the U.S. economy, and its growth rate in 2035 will climb to 4.6%. During the same period, Japan’s total economic value may rise more than twice, from 0.8% to 2.7%; and Germany, Austria, Sweden and the Netherlands will double their annual growth rates.
Specifically for some countries, the increase in total value added in the United States will increase significantly, from 2.6% to 4.6% in 2035. This means that the total additional value of 8.3 trillion U.S. dollars will be realized in 2035 - equivalent to the sum of the current economic growth of Japan, Germany, and Sweden.
In the United Kingdom, artificial intelligence will add an additional $814 billion in total economic value to the economy, which will increase the economic growth rate from 2.5% to 3.9% in 2035. The increase in its growth comes partly from enhanced elements and smart automation. In addition to the service industry, the pharmaceutical and aerospace industries in which the country has advantages can also use intelligent systems to optimize production.
In Japan, the expected economic growth rate in 2035 jumped rapidly from 0.8% to 2.7%, resulting in an overall economic increase of 2.1 trillion US dollars. Japan will benefit from some unique advantages—perfect research networks, outstanding patent applications, and long-term leadership in robotics and other technology areas.
In Germany, artificial intelligence can contribute an additional $1.1 trillion in total economic value in 2035. Most of the economic benefits stem from intelligent, automated support. Its advanced manufacturing department, together with the Industry 4.0 program, has the best conditions for the seamless integration of intelligent systems and production processes.
For these countries, artificial intelligence has the potential to increase its labor productivity in 2035 up to 40%. But its rise does not come from extending the working hours, but through innovative technologies that allow people to use their time more effectively. Although progress in various countries is not the same, artificial intelligence can transcend regional and structural differences and enable labor productivity to achieve rapid and significant leapfrog development.
Is it right or wrong? Depends on how to make the transition
Entrepreneur Elon Musk warned that artificial intelligence may become the "greatest threat to survival." The futurist Ray Kurzweil believes that artificial intelligence can help us “to make great progress in solving major problems in the worldâ€. The fact is, it all depends on how we manage to transition to the age of artificial intelligence. What should be prepared?
Education reserve. As the division of labor between people and machines changes, policy makers need to re-evaluate the types of knowledge and skills passed on to future generations. At present, our technical education is conducted by people to learn how to use the machine. But the situation will change gradually - machines will learn from humans, and humans will also be guided by machines. For example, future customer service representatives will need to demonstrate behaviors for their digital colleagues and will likely follow suit.
We must also develop knowledge in robotics, vision, audio, pattern recognition, and other specialized fields, and use various technological capabilities to design and implement artificial intelligence systems. Of course, for humans, interpersonal skills, creativity, and emotional intelligence become more important.
Laws and regulations. As automatic control machines have taken over from the past only by humans, the existing laws and regulations have yet to be re-examined. For example, in New York, in 1967, regulations demanded that drivers increase safety by placing at least one hand on the steering wheel; however, this requirement may hinder the adoption of semi-automatic safety functions such as automatic parallelism.
In the medical industry, although artificial intelligence can greatly aid medical diagnosis, doctors can avoid using such technology because they fear that they have been accused of negligence. This uncertainty will inhibit the spread of technology and hinder further innovation.
Artificial intelligence itself can also be part of the solution, creating rules with adaptive self-improvement capabilities that bridge the gap between the pace of technological change and the speed of regulatory response. The combination of smart solutions and massive data also helps update regulations based on new cost-benefit assessments – just as they can guide decision-making in many planning areas such as cities, healthcare, and social services.
Code of ethics. How to deal with a racially inclined algorithm? Should auto-propelled vehicles prioritize driver's life in emergency? This will lead to many ethical and social issues. Intelligent systems are rapidly entering a social environment that once included only humans.
In view of the future intelligent systems will be widely in people's lives, decision makers need to establish ethical guidelines for the artificial intelligence ecosystem. In the development of intelligent machines, not only ethical issues should be discussed, but also more rigorous standards and best practices should be actively adopted.
As part of artificial intelligence, the robotics industry has taken the lead in setting general operating standards. The Robotics Business Standard set by the British Standards Institute (BSI) is a step in the right direction. Solve employee worries. Many commentators worry that artificial intelligence will reduce job opportunities, exacerbate inequality, and erode people’s income.
The wave of protests around the world, as well as the discussion of "general basic income" in countries such as Switzerland, reflect this idea. These worries are not groundless. Policy makers need to emphasize that artificial intelligence will bring real benefits—for example, job satisfaction can be increased. According to Accenture research, 84% of managers believe that machines can make their work more efficient and more interesting. In addition to its role in the workplace, artificial intelligence can also help solve some of the world's most significant issues, such as climate change and health services. Policy makers need to actively address and prevent the drawbacks of artificial intelligence.
In the future, artificial intelligence will spread to all aspects of the economy. Policymakers and business leaders cannot simply regard artificial intelligence as another productivity enhancement tool; it is important to clearly recognize that artificial intelligence fundamentally transforms economic growth patterns.
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