[Trump becomes awkward again: the court fights! The Chinese side responded urgently in the middle of the night...] In both China and the United States expressing that China and the United States are withdrawing from a possible trade war in less than a week, the situation has abruptly changed. On May 29, the White House official website issued a statement that the United States will implement specific investment restrictions and increase control over exports to Chinese individuals and entities related to mergers and acquisitions of important industrial technologies. The restriction and control list will be announced no later than June 30, 2018.
The statement also stated that according to Article 301 of the "Trade Law of 1974", the United States will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from China worth 50 billion U.S. dollars, including those related to the "Made in China 2025" plan. The final list of imported goods will be announced on June 15, 2018, and tariffs will be imposed on these imported products later.
The statement also stated that according to Article 301 of the "Trade Law of 1974", the United States will impose a 25% tariff on China's $50 billion worth of products containing important industrial technologies, including those related to the "2025 Made in China" program. The final list of these imported products will be announced before June 15, 2018. In addition, U.S. trade representatives will continue to resolve disputes in China that were initiated in the WTO in March against discriminatory technology licenses in China.
Trump's revolt, in addition to competing for eyeballs, does not appear to be meaningful in the eyes of some scholars. Derek Scissors, a US-China economic researcher at the American Enterprise Research Institute (AEI), a think-tank, told Caijing reporters that the reference to investment restrictions in the statement is meaningless because the Congress has already taken measures in this respect; The 25% tariff levied on US dollar products also repeats the statement in March. It only highlights the words "industrial technology" as compared to March. The part on WTO is irrelevant.
However, this statement has broken the optimism that the United States has suspended suspending tariffs on China.
For this sudden change of Trump, Elizabeth Economy, director of the Asian Department of the American Foreign Relations Association, explained to the Caijing reporter that Trump’s negotiation strategy is very flexible. The transaction is only completed when the transaction is completed.
Yi Ming concluded that in the first 18 months of Trump’s administration, he has taken various approaches to China: sweet talk, threats, fraud, praise, and punishment. The different voices in his economic team each promoted different ways and methods; if a method did not work, it was very simple and he switched to another method. Although the goal is relatively consistent, tactics can quickly switch. This led to great unpredictability in his negotiation style and made it difficult to understand what he was doing.
On May 29th, PoliticCo, the US political news website, published a report on the loss of Commerce Minister Ross, which illustrates from a side the possibility of a sudden change in Trump's policy, which coincides with Yi Ming’s statement. The report mentioned that investor Ross had entered the Trump administration as one of President Trump’s “killersâ€. However, in recent months, the Minister of Commerce has become increasingly marginalized. In the White House, his Department of Commerce was It is generally considered a mess.
When Trump fell into a personal financial crisis, Rose had a long negotiation with Trump as representative of Atlantic City Taj Mahal casino hotel bonds that Trump filed for bankruptcy. Trump won the opportunity to finally win. But now, the insider said that Trump himself had violently attacked Ross at the meeting of the White House’s Oval Office and publicly stated that Ross “has passed his peak†and “is no longer a killer†and tried to stop Rose. Launch trade agreement.
The article revealed that although Rose was earlier one of the loudest protectionist voices the Trump administration called, when the U.S. trade delegation visited China in May, the limelight was all taken away by Finance Minister Mutnucci.
In addition to the imperial controversy, this time Trump’s abrupt change, a number of Washington’s trade experts told the “Finance†reporter that a careful study of the joint statement issued by the two parties not long ago will reveal clues: Although both sides will take effective measures in substance. Sexual reduction of the US trade deficit with China’s goods and the temporary agreement on the two core issues of intellectual property protection and market access, which sound very exciting, but in fact the content is vague and details are missing.
When US Finance Minister Mukuchin received an interview with the United States Fox TV, he had already poured cold water for China and the United States and left behind. He pointed out that the U.S. goal of lowering the trade deficit will be divided into industries, rather than putting forward a general figure; adding a “pause†to tariffs and trade wars, but if China fails to fulfill its promise, President Trump can decide on Chinese goods at any time. Tariffs are re-added.
Regarding the latest position of the Trump administration, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China issued a statement on the 29th and said late at night: We are surprised at the strategic statement issued by the White House, but we are also expecting it. Obviously this is not long ago. The consensus reached between Washington and China in Washington. No matter what measures the United States takes, China has confidence, ability, and experience to safeguard the interests of the Chinese people and the country’s core interests. The Chinese side urges the United States to act in accordance with the spirit of the joint statement.
In fact, for the effectiveness of the use of tariff measures in trade frictions, Edward Alden, an international trade expert at the American Foreign Relations Association, pointed out to the “Financial†reporter that the threat of levying tariffs is no longer comparable to that of the 1980’s. The use of tariffs to threaten other countries to change trade practices is also less likely – the global supply chain makes it difficult to use trade sanctions to damage the domestic economy.
In addition, media reported that Qualcomm intends to meet with the Chinese government’s anti-monopoly authority before the US Commerce Secretary Ross arrives in Beijing this weekend to seek approval for China’s acquisition of NXP Semiconductors after its acquisition plan was extended due to the anti-monopoly review. Stalled. When the United States imposes restrictions on China’s investment in the United States, it may affect the pool of fish and hinder US companies from cooperating with Chinese companies abroad. Qualcomm may bear the brunt of this, and it will also become a weight in Sino-US trade interaction.
In addition, the U.S. State Department said on Tuesday (29th) that the Trump administration plans to shorten the visa period for some Chinese citizens.
According to the Associated Press, the policy will be implemented from June 11. The U.S. State Department stated that according to the new policy, U.S. embassies and consular officials will not issue the maximum deadline as usual, but may shorten the visa validity period. The U.S. Department of State did not provide specific details, but a U.S. official stated that according to instructions received by U.S. embassies and consulates, the validity period of Chinese student visas for professionals specializing in robotics, aerospace and high-tech manufacturing will be limited to one year. According to reports, the above-mentioned professions are all areas where the "Made in China 2025" plan is given priority.
In addition, the U.S. Department of Commerce lists a list of companies that require a high level of scrutiny. If Chinese citizens want to go to these companies for research or management, they need permission from multiple U.S. agencies to obtain visas. An anonymous US official stated that each visa application is expected to take several months.
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