Cryptocurrency investment is one of the hottest topics at the moment, and there are many different views on the future of Bitcoin. From the perspective of price and time alone, Bitcoin has a very high profit opportunity for any investor, but it is difficult to achieve real profitability. Why?
From the perspective of Bitcoin's price changes, it has been showing an upward trend for a long time, so Bitcoin is very friendly to long-term investors. Short-term investors can't complain, because Bitcoin is one of the most volatile assets, and few asset prices can be cut in a few months after experiencing short-term exponential growth.
First focus on the price level. Feel free to choose a high price in the historical price of Bitcoin, such as $8,200. According to the benchmark of $8,200, the probability of investing in Bitcoin at any particular point in time since the birth of Bitcoin and actually profiting from it is about 97%. To be precise, the probability that there is a profit opportunity when entering the market is 97%.
With a rough estimate, we can quickly see that Bitcoin has a price of more than $8,200 for approximately 137 days. Since its total trading time is about 1917 days, there is a 97% probability that investors will buy when the price of Bitcoin is lower than $8,200. However, having a very high profit opportunity does not mean that real profitability is easy. The 97% chance of gaining entry also means that investors only have a 3% chance to sell at the right time to achieve profitability. This is one of the reasons why, according to previous British media reports, only 5% of crypto investors are profitable.
Therefore, if we only consider price and time, overall Bitcoin investors are actually more likely to enter the market at the right time, but it is very difficult to achieve real profitability.
These statistics are very interesting. From a learning point of view, it is important to know when to buy and sell. What investors want to know is not how much money you could have made, but how much money you could still make.
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