The Guardian reported recently that two-thirds of Americans believe that most of the work now performed by humans will be done by robots in the near future, but 80% believe that their work will not be affected. Now is the time to seriously think about this issue. The following is the original content:
McDonald's on the corner of No. 58 Third Avenue in New York looks no different from McDonald's in other parts of the United States. However, here, diners don't have to wait for the waiter to order, they can order themselves through a fully automatic touch-screen vending machine, without having to interact with others.
Using this vending opportunity leads to how many people have lost their jobs, and it is difficult to tell a specific number. McDonald's will not announce this number, but we can imagine that after Trump took office, such innovations will become more and more common in the United States.
Robots used to be nothing but science fiction, but now they are likely to be the most disruptive innovations since the Industrial Revolution. Although robots have been used in some industries in the past few decades, including the automotive industry and manufacturing, experts predict that the development of robots is about to reach a new turning point, and many developed countries are not ready for this. .
Many people realize that robotic automation will become an inevitable potential threat, but there are still some optimists who feel that this is a bias. About two-thirds of Americans believe that in the next 50 years, robots will take over most of human work, and this trend is inevitable; but about 80% believe that their work is at least "largely" Can be saved.
In any case, we all hope that our livelihood will not be affected. But in the next few years, every area of ​​business will suffer from the impact of robotic automation.
For example, Australia's Fastbrick RoboTIcs has developed a robot called Hadrian x, which can handle the handling of 1000 standard bricks in an hour. If used manually, it may take two bricklayers to spend It takes half a day or even longer to complete.
In 2015, the San Francisco-based Imbibe RoboTIcs startup launched the Tally robot, which is said to be “the world's first fully automated shelf inspection and analysis solution†that can “walk†in the supermarket with shoppers ", the task is to ensure that the goods are placed in place, the price tag is complete.
Swedish agricultural equipment manufacturer DeLaval InternaTIonal announced that it will deploy new milking robots in small family dairy farms in Westphalia, Michigan and elsewhere. With this system, cows can milk themselves when they are willing to milk.
The Robotics Industry Association (RIA) is the largest fully automated robotics organization in North America, and its data suggests that robots may be used in many jobs in the future. In the first half of 2016 alone, North American robotics vendors sold 14,583 robots worldwide, valued at a total of $871 million. RIA estimates that there are currently more than 265,000 robots in factories across the United States, and the United States is the third largest robot user after China and Japan.
A recent report by the World Economic Forum predicts that by 2020, robotic automation will result in a net reduction of 5 million jobs in 15 developed countries, and this is only a conservative estimate. Another study led by the ILO shows that in Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, as many as 137 million workers (about 56% of the total workforce in these countries) may be taken away by robots. Especially in the clothing manufacturing industry.
Huge problemRobot automation facilitators often point out that in most cases, robots cannot program themselves. In theory, this will create some highly skilled positions, such as technicians, programmer positions, and so on.
However, every time a robot creates a new position, more jobs will disappear. This situation will have a devastating impact on the workforce.
Dr. Jing Bing Zhang, research director of global marketing intelligence company IDC and a world-class expert in the field of robotics business applications, understands this urgency and has studied how commercial robots affect the future workforce.
The scale of this shift is revealed by Dr. Jing Bing Zhang and his team's Global Robots 2017 Forecast Report, which shows that it will endanger the livelihoods of millions of people.
According to the report, by 2018, about one-third of deployed robots are smarter, more efficient, and better able to work with humans or other robots. By 2019, more than 30% of the world's largest companies will set up "Chief Robot Officer", and some governments will draft or promulgate regulations on safety, security and privacy of robots. By 2020, the average wage in the robotics industry will increase by at least 60% - but due to the lack of skilled personnel, more than one-third of the vacancies in the robotics industry need to be replenished.
“Unfortunately, automation and robotics are sure to impact low-skilled workers,†said Dr. Jing Bing Zhang. “I think the only way to adapt them to this shift is not to hope that the government will protect their jobs, but that they will retrain themselves.â€
At the same time, the development of gesture control, Sensor technology, artificial intelligence, etc. will also spawn a new type of robot, which is mainly aimed at the consumer market. We have never seen this type of robot before, such as a two-legged robot walking upright, living with us in our home, and robots that can interact with us in more complicated ways – in short, The kind of robot that used to exist only in science fiction.
Dr. Jing Bing Zhang said that this is an unparalleled opportunity for companies that can take advantage of this shift, but it also presents significant challenges, such as how do we ensure security and privacy? So it is necessary to develop a new rules framework.
Trump's commitment to bring manufacturing back to the United States in the campaign, the development of robots can actually help. But for Trump's other exaggerated promise to create new jobs for low-skilled workers, robots can't help. When companies manufacture products in the United States, labor costs will increase. If you don't want to sacrifice profit margins, the only way is to automate low-skilled jobs.
In other words, it is okay to return the manufacturing industry to the United States. It is also possible to create new employment opportunities, but the two cannot be combined.
It's time to change jobs, then?Millions of jobs are at risk, and the global employment crisis is growing. We should use education as a way to make it work, because this is the only logical solution. The job market is becoming more and more unstable, and developed countries urgently need more Stem talents (Stem is the abbreviation of science, technology, engineering, math, namely science, technology, engineering and mathematics) to maintain their competitiveness.
In the past eight years, science and technology have occupied an important position in the White House and in public forums. Stem education is a key point of Obama's concern, and he gave the importance of Stem education during his administration.
With the support of Obama, the United States will train 100,000 new Stem teachers by 2021. American universities will graduate 100,000 engineers a year, which is the first time in the United States to train engineers at such a scale and speed. High school in 31 states also took computer science courses as a compulsory course.
The bad news is that this progress may be interrupted. Because Trump chose Betsy DeVos as the Minister of Education, this person lacks experience in the field of public education.
This appointment will undoubtedly affect the student's enthusiasm for Stem. Private schools like Carnegie Mellon University may offer students the most advanced robotics labs, but community colleges and vocational schools are not expected to have this ability, and those who will be taken away by robots have to Community colleges and vocational schools receive education and training.
Due to the high student debt and the increasingly unstable job market, many young people will reconsider their educational choices. Most 40-year-old workers are not able to carry tens of thousands of dollars in debt and go to a traditional four-year private university.
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