The explosion of industrial robots in China is an inevitable trend, and the market of 10 billion is growing at a high speed. 1) Economic “scissors difference†promotes the spontaneous transformation of enterprises: the global industrial robot price decreases at an average annual rate of 6%, and the domestic labor cost rises at a rate of 8%. The domestic engineer dividend further catalyzes the downward price of robots. Substitution of the "cost" formed scissors, the multi-function robot cost recovery period has been less than 2 years, part of the scene has been less than 0.5 years, economics is expected to drive the demand for multi-functional robots into the outbreak. 2) Continued outbreak of important downstream demand: It is expected that China's automobile production will maintain a growth rate of 2%-4% overall. As the automation solution breaks through more process requirements, there are demand for welding, painting, assembly and other processes in other fields. Have the potential to be replaced. 3) High-level support for industrial robots is determined: Lewis' turning point brings severe labor shortage expectations, and the national level has issued policies such as "Made in China 2025", "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" and "Industrial Strong Foundation Project". It is planned that by 2020, China's industrial robot density target will be 150 units/person, domestic production will be 200,000 units, and independent production will be 100,000 units. 4) High-speed growth of tens of billions of markets: China's industrial robot sales increased from 0.66 million in 2007 to 87,000 in 2016, CAGR reached 33.2%, and the average industrial robot market capacity was estimated at 150,000 yuan per industrial robot. Has exceeded 10 billion. According to the requirements of the "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)", the domestic market space will reach 30 billion yuan in 2020.
International giants monopolize the mid- to high-end market, and domestic manufacturers fully enjoy the industry's explosive dividend. The whole machine side: ABB, FANUC, Yaskawa and KUKA rely on long-term technology accumulation and extensive industry awareness to firmly occupy the high-end market of industrial robots in the world. In 2016, the domestic market share reached 57.4%. The capacity of the “Four Big Family†is generally limited. In 2017, the import volume of multi-functional industrial robots in China has reached 81,300 units, which poses a big challenge to the production capacity of traditional leading enterprises. As a result, the demand for domestic industrial robots has overflowed to domestic manufacturers. Under the stimulation of the market, the domestic manufacturers' technology has continuously broken through and the market reputation has been effectively accumulated. In 2016, the domestic market share has exceeded 25%, and there is a trend of continuous expansion. Capacity expansion projects such as Xinsong Robot, Tusta, and Eston are intensively put into production in 2018 and 2019, and it is expected to efficiently seize the domestic market that is exploding. Component end: The domestic body controller technology level is relatively high, and the high-tech gearbox market share is close to 50% in the field of PC based controllers; however, the gap between high-end reducers and international giants such as Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco is obvious, and domestic enterprises are investing in themselves. With the double promotion of state support, the company has continuously achieved breakthroughs in the field of reducer. The shipment of green harmonics 2017 harmonic reducer has ranked second in China. Zhongda Desheng won the bid of 30,000 sets of RV reducer in May 2018. Large single, double-ring transmission, Qinchuan machine tools and other enterprises have also achieved breakthroughs in different directions.
In 2018, key indicators have undergone important marginal changes, and industrial robots and parts companies are expected to usher in investment turmoil. In 2018, with the central and local industrial Internet high-speed promotion policy as a symbol, the state's support for automation and intelligent transformation has entered a new substantive implementation stage. Since July 2017, the number of domestic robots/imported robots has been increasing from 1.45. In February 2018, it broke through 2 for the first time, reaching 2.03. The trend of robot localization is clearer. We believe that 2018 will be the turning point of industrial robots. Domestic ontologies, integration and core parts companies are expected to be realized, that is, a new round of outbreaks.
Investment Logic: Grasping the industrial robot industry chain from top to bottom, recommending the core components in the field of the strength of the medium-strength (the gearbox business is the first to increase the volume, 30,000 sets of large single effective guarantee), the body production of the first bidding robot (domestic robot faucet, back It relies on the strong research and development strength of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the integration of experience and the strong synergy of the ontology, and the Eston of the whole industry chain of the private enterprise (the whole industry chain layout, through the upstream and downstream to achieve full control of technology), the first in the field of integration Da (deep-injection machine automation, automation integrated solutions are widely used, and the ontology business achieves breakthrough).
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